How much weight can I expect to lose?

I was 273 pounds, and my doctor's goal was 161 (I am 5'3"). My personal goal was 140. 17 months out, I am at 139 and holding. Would like to lose more, but I am not stressing about it right now as all I want to do is to get through the holidays without gaining.

Normal BMI should be your goal. I don't know why doctors set the goal above that point.

It's not that you can't try to reach 150. Many do successfully, but what she didn't explain well is that docs consider you successful if you maintain only 50% loss of your excess weight. Some may lose down to goal, but weight creeps back up in a couple of years, leveling off somewhere in-between.

That is their long-term expectation, but not a rule of any kind.