Marathon this weekend!

First of my 3 marathons this upcoming season is this weekend.  The wild thing is I still HAVEN'T figured out my goal time!!!!
Looking for some advice:
Detroit is Sunday with NYC in 2 weeks.  My run training is progressing nicely but it's taken a little bit longer to go from triathlon training to straight running.  I'm sure I'm going to PB (second ever marathon, lol)
My runs lately have been around 9:20 for up to a 10k.  Beyond that I've been significantly slower but have had some nutrition/hydration issues contributing to it.  After Wednesday's 10k that I did I really felt like I could've gone on forever at that pace.
At the Detroit marathon they'll have pacing for 4:30/4:45/5:00.  I was thinking I'd be somewhere between 4:40-4:45 but think that it may be possible to do 4:30 (10:18/mile) though it'd push me.

My original thinking was to go for a 4:40 (10:41) and if I'm feeling good around mile 20 to go ahead and open things up.  I know at Muskoka around mile 10 I was still able to get out a 9:30 mile but the hills stopped me from maintaining that.  If I've got juice in the tank after that long of day I'm sure I can find it after 4:00 hours.

Overall I'm prepared and I hate not knowing what my goal is going to be, lol.  If it wasn't for NYC I'd be going for 4:30 and not thinking twice though I really think I'll be able to recover without a problem.  Have a goal set for Disney in January -- not gonna share that one yet :)
Give me some thoughts 
--Dan

I think it all boils down to how you feel that day. Here is what I did at my last marathon and then I will give you my opinion:

As for my pace, my splits are below:

Dan Benintendi #131

Saginaw, TX, USA

Age: 33 Gender: M

Distance	MAR
Clock Time	4:23:49
Chip Time	4:23:01
Overall Place	447 / 920
Gender Place	350 / 622
Division Place	10 / 61
Total Pace	10:02/M
1St Half Rank	433
1St Half Time	2:01:27
1St Half Pace	9:16/M
2Nd Half Rank	484
2Nd Half Time	2:21:32
2Nd Half Pace	10:48/M

So, I think of all the things I have learned in the past year, negative splits are a good indication of your fitness. The 1st half of the marathon I averaged 9:16's.... I also stopped to pee 5 times or so in the first 13.1 because it was 30 degrees and I was super hydrated and was not sweating much, so realistically, I was probably running sub 9's... (Way too fast to start out with for me)... The second half I averaged 10:48 with some walking between miles 21-23. I am hoping in my marathon in December that I can average 9:30's in the 1st half, then average 9's the 2nd half... I want to break 4 hours for sure!!! I would say that with 3 marathons, set a reasonable, doable goal that will not push you to the point of injury. Shoot for 10's for the 1st half then try to pick it up a little on the last 10-13 miles. Best of luck buddy, can't wait to read about it....

Kick A$$ and take names this weekend Dan,
You are going to do great.
I have never run, walked or crawled a marathon, so no advice from me, but I'm looking forward to hearing how it went for you!

Scott

Dan I think your plan sounds great.  With NY just 2 weeks away ... no need to get a potential injury and kill your NY plans.  (speaking of NY ... I'll be there volunteering just after the Queensboro Bridge once in Manhatten.  I'll keep an eye out for ya!)

My first full is in November and as silly as it sounds, I just wanna beat Oprah's 4:29:20 !!!   

Tom

Hey Dan have you checked out the NY Marathon Course Video?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ua0TOyzmN9k

I hope you are ok, just got an email that 3 men have died at the marathon, 2 at the finish line.