Individualized formula for estimated weight loss

Here's a recent article on the feasibility of calculating stable weight loss at 3 yrs for patients with BMI >50<:

Expected body mass index after bariatric surgery

Author(s): Baltasar A (Baltasar, Aniceto)1, Serra C (Serra, Carlos)1, Bou R (Bou, Rafael)1, Bengochea M (Bengochea, Marcelo)1, Perez N (Perez, Nieves)1, Borras F (Borras, Fernando)2, Marceau P (Marceau, Picard)3

Source: CIRUGIA ESPANOLA    Volume: 86    Issue: 5    Pages: 308-312    Published: NOV 2009

Abstract: Introduction: The body mass index (BMI) is the most practical method to measure and compare obesity between individuals. The Percentage of Excess BMI Loss (PEBMIL) is used to present results in operated patients and is based on the premise that a BMI-25 is the final aim, on being the upper limit in normal subjects. It is possible to achieve a BMI-25 in morbid obese (MO) patients with initial low BMIs (<50) but it is rare in overweight (OW) patients with a BMI > 50. Expected BMI (EBMI) would be that which should be reached by all subjects depending on their initial BMI. Objective: The objective of this study is to search for, using statistical methods, a formula based on clinical evidence that can identify the EBMI depending on the initial BMI. Patients and method: We analysed the initial and final BMI in a group of 135 MO patients, operated on using the duodenal switch procedure and with a follow up of over 3 years. A linear regression method has been used to obtain a formula that could calculate the EBMI of each patient operated on. Results: We obtained an algorithm in which EBMI = Initial BMI x 0.33+14. If we apply the individualised EBMI instead of the BMI-25, the median PEBMIL was 99.48 (range: 76.75-110.46). Conclusion: This result suggests that the application of an individual EBMI is a more reliable estimate of the success or failure of bariatric operations. (C) 2008 AEC. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L. All rights reserved.

Wow, that's amazing; for me it's right on. Initial BMI 40.5 X .33 = 13.365 + 14 = 27.365. My BMI is 27.4 and has been for over 6 months.

Kerry

Oy, I hope this is wrong for me! That means I might barely make it to ONEderland. 54 x .33 = 17.82 + 14 = 31.82 BMI. or 197.

But I think I will make it further into Onederland, even if not all the way to my arbitrary goal.

Obviously no one formula "fits" all, and in this case, this one doesn't fit me (granted I wasn't over 50 BMI):

45.3 x .33 + 14 = 28.9

and well, I'm hovering around 24 BMI right now.

But, a good place for newbies to look to get an idea of where they might end up.

Geez, I hope not.  That would put my BMI back up to 28.5 - back in the overweight range.  I kinda like where I am right now and want to stay here!

 Thank you for posting this.  I think it gives people that are SMO a realistic expectation on where they will end up.  And the people that are under a BMI of 50, the BMI - 25 is still a good expectation.

Jeff

This is a tough one for me as I started at 68 BMI. This means I would likely be around 210 pounds at best.

Great (rolling my eyes). It might be reality, and sometimes reality sucks, but not as much as 410 pounds sucks I suppose.

Oh I REALLY hope that's not going to be my case.  :( 

This is consistent with what Dr. Anthone told me at my pre-op appointment.  He said SMO's tend not to get to a normal BMI and calculated my goal weight as 232.  When I do the math I get the following:
70 x .33=23.1 + 14=37.1 or 237 lbs. (Anthone was pretty darn close!)
Of course I want to get to 199 which I am going to aim for.  This study however, helps me when I start feeling low that I am not losing as fast as I want--puts things in perspective.  This is a great baseline and I am glad you took the time to post it.  And, like "mom of two girls" said.....237 is a hell of alot better for me than 448!

I am glad that this more 'academic' post was found useful. I am the 'scientific' type and as a pre-op (02/15/2010) I am doing a lot of research.  
Between the statistics and conclusions of trials and case reports and the rich information on this forum I hope to find a middle ground.
To tell the truth my goal has never been to reach some ideal Swimsuit Edition, red carpet size 2 but to be healthy first and foremost. According to this formula I would still be overweight at three years post-op but much healthier.
God willing I am hoping to survive the surgery and the critical post-op period and stabilize at a decent weight that I haven't seen since college. And that would be enough for me.
As I find other relevant information I will post it.
So far as you can see from my choice of surgery my research in medical/clinical/nutrition sources has shown that the DS is the most reliable and successful WLS (in the hands of a good surgeon and with adequate follow-up care)