What are the Odds???
Hi Everyone....just for fun!
Recently a veteran bandster posted that getting banded is just a "crap shoot"... it got me thinking that maybe that is a pretty good analogy!
Here is the breakdown of the possible combinations of shooting crap, where the objective is to bet for or against a particular roll of the dice...
| Dice Roll | Possible Dice Combinations |
| 2 | 1-1 |
| 3 | 1-2, 2-1 |
| 4 | 1-3, 2-2, 3-1 |
| 5 | 1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1 |
| 6 | 1-5, 2-4, 3-3, 4-2, 5-1 |
| 7 | 1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2, 6-1 |
| 8 | 2-6, 3-5, 4-4, 5-3, 6-2 |
| 9 | 3-6, 4-5, 5-4, 6-3 |
| 10 | 4-6, 5-5, 6-4 |
| 11 | 5-6, 6-5 |
| 12 | 6-6 |
Per the illustration, 16/36 are in the green zone and have no problems whatsoever.
In the blue zone, there are 14/36 (39%) individuals that are having minor issues, such as pbs, a little heartburn or don't think their "restriction" is adequate...many of these are newer to banding and haven't learned what their band will tolerate or haven't had many fills, if any. Once they get passed the first few months, most will settle down and graduate to the green zone.
In the black zone are 6/36 (16.6%) individuals that are having bigger problems...perhaps they haven't found an ideal fill level yet and are getting frustrated. They could have a minor slip requiring a complete unfill for a while. They could have a leak or a flipped port. Some of these people will have their problems resolve without surgical intervention and some will have to have a minor procedure to repair a port or tubing. In most cases these people end up in the green zone after resolution of the problem.
In the red zone are those who have major complications...2/36 or about 5%...erosion or a slip that won't resolve without surgery fall into the red zone.
When you look at quoted "re-operation rates" of 25% and take into consideration of the number of people in the black zone and red zone...8/36 it is approximately the same...22.2%.
I am putting my money on being in the green zone most of the time, the blue zone occasionally and hoping to avoid the black and red zone by keeping my band a bit loose and following the "band rules".
I thought that this would be a fun way to create a visual of where we all fall into the "crap shoot" odds and give a bit of perspective to an otherwise black or white discussion.
Have a great day everyone!!
*This is not intended to be a scientifically accurate portrayal any more than most of the other posts on this forum who say the band is a crap shoot, doomed to fail or call it the crap band...it is just a visual aid and a way to open up the dialog in a fun and non-hysterical way.
6-7-13 band removed. No revision. Facebook Failed Lapbands and Realize Bands group and WLS-Support for Regain and Revision Group
Like it!! So people who say it is a crap shoot are (without knowing it) being really quite positive!!
When you look at quoted "re-operation rates" of 25% and take into consideration of the number of people in the black zone and red zone...8/36 it is approximately the same...22.2%
And when you bear in mind that this figure is just one study and most studies show re-op rates in the low teens...?
Highest 290, Banded - 248 Lowest 139 (too thin!). Comfort zone 155-165.
Happily banded since May 2006. Regain of 28lbs 2013-14. ALL GONE!
But some has returned! Up to 175, argh! Off we go again,
Hi Steph! Yes, not trying to pick you up, just making the point in case a newbie thought that you were saying that that was a fact! I know you weren't!!
Now who would "those people" be???
Actually - have I been blocked? There haven't been any such posts I have seen for a few days!
Kate
Highest 290, Banded - 248 Lowest 139 (too thin!). Comfort zone 155-165.
Happily banded since May 2006. Regain of 28lbs 2013-14. ALL GONE!
But some has returned! Up to 175, argh! Off we go again,
On April 7, 2011 at 12:07 PM Pacific Time, kate P wrote:
Hi Steph! Yes, not trying to pick you up, just making the point in case a newbie thought that you were saying that that was a fact! I know you weren't!!
Now who would "those people" be???
Actually - have I been blocked? There haven't been any such posts I have seen for a few days!
Kate
I'll pm you!
6-7-13 band removed. No revision. Facebook Failed Lapbands and Realize Bands group and WLS-Support for Regain and Revision Group
learning more everyday
on 6/14/12 11:28 am
on 6/14/12 11:28 am
Just reading some old posts and noticed this one... looks like the odds are quite a bit higher than 25%... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-07/allergan-receives-u-s-subpoena-over-weight-loss-device.html
In January, House Democratic lawmakers called for hearings on medical devices including Lap-Band, following a study in the medical journal Archives of Surgery, that found almost half of patients with a gastric band had no weight loss or needed the device removed after six years. More than 40 percent had long- term complications.
Looks like a lot more people are speaking up about their bands "crapping out" so to speak now than last year.
In January, House Democratic lawmakers called for hearings on medical devices including Lap-Band, following a study in the medical journal Archives of Surgery, that found almost half of patients with a gastric band had no weight loss or needed the device removed after six years. More than 40 percent had long- term complications.
Looks like a lot more people are speaking up about their bands "crapping out" so to speak now than last year.
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