Realistic formula for figuring goal/computing expected weight loss after DS

I know there is a doc who came up with a formula that seems to work well for predicting a REALISTIC goal after the DS, but I can't remember who it is or what the formla was.  Anyone know what I'm talking about?

Not everyone makes it to a BMI of 25 and not everyone should expect to, so I think this is a valuable tool to have access to.

Thanks!

On January 27, 2011 at 6:46 AM Pacific Time, ysset888 wrote: I know there is a doc who came up with a formula that seems to work well for predicting a REALISTIC goal after the DS, but I can't remember who it is or what the formla was.  Anyone know what I'm talking about?

Not everyone makes it to a BMI of 25 and not everyone should expect to, so I think this is a valuable tool to have access to.

Thanks!


  It was Baltasar.  Here's a link.

edited to add:  According to this formula I should have reached 28.8.  As you can see by my ticker, I didn't get close.  I just hate being the exception to the rule.  grrrr

Thanks!

I've copied and pasted the info below for those interested:

Expected body mass index after bariatric surgery

Servicio de Cirugía General, Hospital Virgen de los Lirios, and Departamento de Estadística, Matemáticas e informática, Universidad Miguel Hernández, Alicante, Spain. [email protected]

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: The body mass index (BMI) is the most practical method to measure and compare obesity between individuals. The Percentage of Excess BMI Loss (PEBMIL) is used to present results in operated patients and is based on the premise that a BMI-25 is the final aim, on being the upper limit in normal subjects. It is possible to achieve a BMI-25 in morbid obese (MO) patients with initial low BMIs (<50) but it is rare in overweight (OW) patients with a BMI>50. Expected BMI (EBMI) would be that which should be reached by all subjects depending on their initial BMI.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to search for, using statistical methods, a formula based on clinical evidence that can identify the EBMI depending on the initial BMI.

PATIENTS AND METHOD: We analysed the initial and final BMI in a group of 135 MO patients, operated on using the duodenal switch procedure and with a follow up of over 3 years. A linear regression method has been used to obtain a formula that could calculate the EBMI of each patient operated on.

RESULTS: We obtained an algorithm in which EBMI=Initial BMIx0.33+14. If we apply the individualised EBMI instead of the BMI-25, the median PEBMIL was 99.48 (range: 76.75-110.46).

CONCLUSION: This result suggests that the application of an individual EBMI is a more reliable estimate of the success or failure of bariatric operations.

I just want to add that Baltasar's formula was designed specifically for those with a starting BMI over 50, based on his findings. It was also based on findings from all surgery types, so I think DSers on average can realistically expect to lose more than the formula allows. 

Formula is Expected BMI = Initial BMI x 0.33+14. 

Interesting.  My results are just under 30, and I fully expect to go past that, having started at 47.  Of course, I won't get there if I keep eating carbs. 

My read is that it was developed on DSers with a starting BMI over 50.

~Becky

 Thanks, Becky - you are right. I think I must have conflated this with a different study.

 Thank you Jenna!  This really depressed me, so I thank you for clarifying!  When I worked the formula, I was shocked at the expected result.  I was NOT happy!

Wait, it does say specifically DS procedure!  Oy!

D'oh! Sorry, I am totally mistaken! I guess I was thinking of a different study.

At any rate, this formula would have given me about a 31 BMI and I'm here at a 24.9, so take that for whatever it is worth. Of course it is still quite possible I could experience a bounce back. 

My personal feeling is that this formula is slightly conservative, based on the anecdotal results I've seen and the other studies on EWL after the DS.  But the 90-100% EWL ideal is also unrealistic for many. I think setting one's expectations somewhere in the middle is probably good. 

 Thank you Jenna!  I am encouraged by how well you have done!  I have not seen any loss this month at all.   And, I am 8 months out and wondering if this is where it ends for me.  I know that is they way it does work for some.  Just having one of those days!